December 28, 2021

Good evening - let’s get right to tomorrow’s bowl:

Alamo Bowl – #16 Oregon/#14 Oklahoma: I have talked about this one a few times and I have now fired in on the over - saw a couple of things that made me think the line might shoot up a bit so decided to take the plunge – to review what we have going on here:

- For Oklahoma, four 2nd team Big12 defenders out in the front 7 including three on the DL that combined for 20.5 sacks and MLB Brian Asamoah who has led the Sooners in tackles two years running.

- OU DC Alex Grinch is already gone to LA and has taken a bunch of defensive assistants with him.

- Oregon will be missing 1st team AA DE Kayvon Thibodeaux, starting NG Popo Aumavae, starting CB Mykael Wright (1st team Pac12 ly) and the other starter at CB DJ James (these four represent 4 of the top 7 leading tacklers on the team) – we also know from a report yesterday that more backups from the Oregon D look like they will be unavailable as well (though I did read today that a few of the players that were missing from yesterday’s practice will be avail- able, including NG Keanu Williams who is Aumavae’s backup) – still the depth on the DL is so thin that Oregon has moved Fr C Jackson Powers-Johnson to the DL for this game – interim HC Bryan McClendon says the Ducks will have to dig deep into its depth vs OU (https://247s- ports.com/college/oregon/Article/Oregon-Ducks-Football-179224637/).

- We know Oregon will be missing a few WR’s, but their OL looks to enter the game pretty much intact and the Ducks have a couple of big time backs in Travis Dye and Byron Cardwell.

- Outside of OU’s 2nd leading pass catcher in WR Jadon Haselwood we haven’t heard of any opt outs or transfers on the Sooner offense – Oklahoma spread the ball around a good bit on offense so the thinking here is that Haselwood won’t be missed that much.

- Both teams will be led by interim staffs and though it does look like some of the OU offensive assistants may retain their positions most of the Oregon coaches are already out of the door for all practical purposes – to me that creates a situation where there isn’t a lot to lose on either side and I don’t see any reason for either squad to play it close to the vest tomorrow night.

- OU ranks 98th in the country in opponent yards per pass attempt, and I would think that los- ing your top 3 pass rushers would affect the pass D in a negative way – the Sooners were a little better against the run ranking 41st in opponent yards per rush attempt, but again not sure how losing your four top players in the front 7 is going to help the rush D.

- Oregon in the top 35 in both of those metrics but the loss of personnel on their D should have a negative effect as well.

- Keep hearing from different players how they think tomorrow night’s game will be ‘fun’, and both teams seem excited to be there despite coming in with less than a full roster – meanwhile both HC’s have described the situation with the missing defensive talent as ‘challenging’.

When I first noticed the total on this game at 62.5 I thought that they were begging for action on the under, especially considering the Ducks had failed to top 10 points in two of their last three games – but I thought at the time that this would be a wide open type of game because again, why not considering the situation – a little bit surprised that the number hasn’t risen giv- en the personnel news, but I’m not going to overthink this one – first time I have played a total at this level in a while, and first time I have ever posted a total for Sharp Insight – but there is simply too much NFL talent that will be missing from these defenses for there not to be a nega- tive effect on both stop units I.M.O., and there is a lot of talent on the offensive side of the ball for both squads (including in the trenches)

Hope we don’t get any late breaking news about missing offensive players, or covid outbreaks, or whatever (it’s bowl season in 2021 though so anything is possible) – either way I am in, and I’ll be risking 1.815 units to win 1.650 on:

Oregon/Oklahoma Over 60.5 -110

Feels odd to bet a total, especially an over, but just too much going on here for me to ignore and I just don’t see any reason for either team not to let it all hang out in the climate controlled Alamodome tomorrow night.

As always, good luck no matter which sides (or totals) you choose – LA Burns